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IMF Report が厳しく評価した日本財政 [Social Policy]

2011年4月12日付けのInternational Monetary Fund=IMF のReport がアメリカ,日本,アイルランドについて,財政規律の回復,財政赤字の抑制を強く求めています.              日本語訳などはしませんが,日本の置かれた厳しい政治経済状況が縷々綴られています.

実際にも,子供手当や国民年金への国庫負担率の現状維持などが論じられているのは,周知の事実です.
福祉国家は,20世紀中に,その受益者がとかく中流階層化したというのが,私の実証研究テーマのひとつですが,これからは,もっともっとターゲットを低所得層に絞るのでなければ,財政的に存立し得ないことを,このReport は示唆していると思われますから,その大要を読み取っていただければ幸いです.

Most advanced economies are reducing fiscal deficits this year, but the United States has put adjustment on hold, and fiscal adjustment had been postponed in Japan relative to the pace envisaged in the November Fiscal Monitor, even before the recent earthquake, which will involve additional fiscal costs. Debt ratios are still rising in most advanced economies, and financing needs are at historical highs.

For advanced economies, steady annual progress, starting now, toward bringing debt ratios to prudent levels in the medium term is essential. 
the United States has deferred consolidation plans for this year, introducing further. stimulus.    
Prior to the earthquake that struck the country on March 11, Japan’s fiscal stance was broadly neutral, with a postponement of fiscal adjustment relative to the pace envisaged in the November Fiscal Monitor. The earthquake will now inevitably involve significant additional fiscal costs, the magnitude of which cannot be properly estimated at this early stage.

The United States needs to accelerate the adoption of credible measures to
reduce debt ratios. In Japan, when estimates of the overall fiscal cost of
disaster relief and reconstruction become available, it will be necessary to
incorporate them into plans for steady medium-term fiscal adjustment,
backed up by measures more clearly identified than in the past.

In the United States, fiscal adjustment is being delayed. The stimulus
package adopted in December 2010 (consisting of the extension of tax
cuts and emergency unemployment benefits—see the January 2011 Fiscal
Monitor update for details) is projected to contribute to an increase in the
general government deficit to 10¾ percent of GDP, the largest among
advanced economies this year. The United States is the only large
advanced economy (aside from Japan—see below) aiming at an increased
cyclically adjusted deficit this year, despite a narrowing (although still
large) output gap (Figure 1.2). While targeted measures to address the
high social costs of still weak housing and labor markets could be
justified, the composition of the stimulus package means that its growth impact will be small relative to its fiscal costs (April 2011 WEO). The
deficit would be lower if the federal government were compelled to
adhere to the current Continuing Resolution for a significant portion of
the rest of FY2011.3

In Japan, the fiscal stance was expected to be broadly neutral prior to the
earthquake, as the expiration of earlier stimulus measures was being
offset by increases in transfers. In the aftermath of the earthquake, the
government is now expected to adopt a supplementary budget to support
the relief efforts, including by tapping the available cash reserves
(approximately 0.3 percent of GDP). Discussions are ongoing on how to
finance the support package, with alternatives ranging from issuance of
new bonds to a temporary tax hike.


Required adjustment exceeds 5 percent of GDP in one-third of the advanced
economies. Japan, Ireland, the United States, and Greece all confront adjustment needs of 10 percent of GDP or more. For Japan and Ireland, the
challenge stems from large current deficits combined with the need to run
large future surpluses to service a sizable debt.
For the United States, the
pressure comes from the large deficit. For Greece, considerable progress has
already been made in reducing the primary deficit, but significant further
adjustment is needed to stabilize and then reduce the debt ratio.

Using country-specific differentials that are assumed to be
positively linked to countries’ debt ratios, adjustment needs increase by
2 percent of GDP in Greece and Japan and by 1 percent in Italy.

Post-2016 gaps are larger than 3 percent of GDP for several advanced economies, including Belgium, Ireland, Japan, Spain, and the United States.

Gradually declining deficits will be offset by rising debt rollovers from higher debt stocks and some maturity shortening early in the crisis.
Japan has the highest requirement for 2011, at 56 percent of GDP, followed
by the United States, Greece, Italy, Belgium, and Portugal at about half that
level.

In Japan, unlike other G-7 economies, increases in yields have been
modest despite Standard and Poor’s downgrading of the sovereign to
AA–, and notwithstanding the catastrophic events following on from the
earthquake in early March. This muted reaction is likely related to the
stable domestic investor base (about 95 percent of Japanese bonds are
owned domestically).
Also, continued sluggish growth and deflation have played a role. The impact of securities purchases by the Bank of Japan in
2010:Q4 (Table 2.2) was negligible.10 Nonetheless, CDS rates have started
to edge up, somewhat more so in the aftermath of the earthquake,
suggesting increased concern about the fiscal challenges facing the country.

More broadly, there is a risk that the electoral calendar in the United States, France, and Japan, and possibly elsewhere, could complicate policy implementation. Experience with past consolidation episodes has shown that greater fractionalization in the legislature and perceptions of lower political stability are associated with weaker implementation of plans.
Strengthening fiscal institutions, including public financial management
frameworks, fiscal rules, and fiscal councils, can reduce the risk of policy
slippages. Regrettably, recent developments in this area are mixed:

In Japan, the Fiscal Management Strategy envisages maintaining stable reductions in the debt ratio from FY2021. Once the fiscal costs of recent developments are assessed, commitment to a fiscal policy leading to a more rapid adjustment, supported by fiscal measures more clearly identified than in the past, would be appropriate.

the introduction in the United States of a value-added tax, and an increase in
currently very low VAT rates in Japan (as part of the ongoing reform of
taxation), could yield significant resources while minimizing distortions
associated with other types of tax increases.

Japan and the United States should underpin their fiscal consolidation efforts with institutional reforms. In the United States, more binding multiyear
restrictions on spending are needed, along with effective top-down budgeting
that helps ensure that plans are implemented. For Japan, the new mediumterm
fiscal framework needs to spell out the measures that will be taken.
Greater commitment could also derive from breaking with the past practice
of repeated recourse to supplementary budgets
, except in emergency
circumstances like those prevailing in the aftermath of the earthquake. 

In Canada, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Japan, and the Slovak Republic, staying the course with marginal reforms would be enough to contain excess cost growth, although bolder reforms could still be needed to offset the effects of demographics on health spending.

 

 

Table 1.1. Fiscal Balances, 2008–12

                                                            Projections   Difference from 
                                                                             11/2010 Projections 
                                   2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  [2010  2011  2012]
Overall Balance (Percent of GDP)
World                            -2.0   -6.7   -5.6   -4.7   -3.5    0.4    0.2    0.2
Advanced Economies        -3.6   -8.8   -7.7   -7.1   -5.2     0.5  -0.3   -0.1
United States                  -6.5 -12.7  -10.6 -10.8   -7.5     0.5  -1.1   -0.9
Euro Area                       -2.1   -6.4    -6.0  -4.4   -3.6     0.7    0.7    0.7
France1                         -3.3   -7.5    -7.0  -5.8   -4.9     1.0    0.3   -0.1
Germany                          0.1   -3.0    -3.3  -2.3   -1.5     1.2    1.4    1.4
Italy                              -2.7   -5.3    -4.5  -4.3   -3.5     0.6    0.0    0.1
Spain                             -4.2 -11.1    -9.2   -6.2  -5.6     0.0    0.7    0.7
Japan                             -4.2 -10.3    -9.5 -10.0  -8.4     0.1   -1.1  -0.3
United Kingdom                -4.9 -10.3   -10.4  -8.6   -6.9   -0.3   -0.5  -0.6
Canada                            0.1   -5.5    -5.5  -4.6   -2.8   -0.6   -1.6  -0.6
Others                             2.0   -1.0      0.2   0.9    1.6     0.9    0.8    0.7
Emerging Economies          -0.6   -4.9    -3.8  -2.6   -2.2     0.4    0.7    0.6
Asia                               -2.4   -4.7    -4.2   -3.4   -2.7     0.4    0.5    0.5
China                             -0.4   -3.1    -2.6   -1.6   -0.9     0.3    0.4    0.3
India                              -8.0  -10.0   -9.4   -8.3   -7.5     0.2    0.5    0.9
ASEAN-5                         -0.8   -3.7    -2.7  -2.8   -2.4     0.3    0.1    0.1
Europe                             0.6   -6.2    -4.4   -2.3  -2.3     0.7    1.7    1.0
Russia                              4.9   -6.3    -3.6   -1.6  -1.7     1.2    2.0    1.2
Latin America                   -0.7   -3.7    -2.9   -2.2  -2.2    -0.3    0.0    0.0
Brazil                              -1.4   -3.1    -2.9   -2.4  -2.6    -1.2   -1.2  -0.9
Mexico                            -1.3   -4.8    -4.1   -1.8  -2.4    -0.5    1.3    0.3
Middle East and North Africa-0.1   -2.9   -2.1   -4.9   -4.2     1.4   -1.4  -1.2
Low-Income Economies      -1.4   -4.2    -2.9   -2.6   -2.4     0.2    0.4   0.0
Oil Producers                     4.7   -4.4    -1.4     1.2    1.3     1.8    3.4   2.3
G-20 Economies                -2.6   -7.5    -6.3    -5.7  -4.3     0.5   -0.1   0.0
Advanced G-20 Economies  -4.2   -9.4    -8.2    -8.0  -5.8     0.5   -0.6  -0.4
Emerging G-20 Economies   -0.4    -4.8   -3.6    -2.5  -2.1     0.4     0.6   0.6

Cyclically Adjusted Balance (Percent of Potential GDP)
Advanced Economies          -3.3   -5.5   -5.7    -5.5  -4.2     0.4    -0.4  -0.2
United States2                  -4.6   -6.8   -7.5    -8.1  -5.7     0.4    -1.0  -0.8
Euro Area                         -2.9   -4.6   -4.2    -3.3  -2.8     0.7     0.6    0.6
France                             -3.2   -5.5   -5.3    -4.3  -3.7     1.0     0.3    0.0
Germany                          -1.0   -1.1    -2.4    -2.1  -1.5     0.9    0.8    1.0
Italy                               -2.4   -3.2    -2.8    -2.7  -2.2     0.7     0.2    0.4
Spain                              -5.3   -9.7    -7.5    -4.7  -4.6     0.0     0.7    0.7
Japan                              -3.6   -7.0    -7.5    -8.3  -7.4     0.0   -1.1   -0.5
United Kingdom                 -5.9   -8.5    -8.3    -6.6  -5.1   -0.3  -0.4  -0.4
Canada                 0.0   -3.2    -4.0    -3.6  -2.2    -0.6   -1.6   -0.6
Others                              0.5   -1.5    -0.8    -0.3   0.3      0.5    0.6    0.4
Emerging Economies           -2.4   -4.6    -4.1    -3.2  -2.7    -0.1    0.0   -0.1
Asia                                -3.2   -5.2    -4.5    -3.6  -2.8    -0.2   -0.1   -0.2
China                              -0.9   -3.4    -2.9    -1.8  -1.1      0.3    0.4     0.5
India                             -10.2  -11.0  -10.0    -8.8  -7.7     -1.3  -1.6    -2.0
ASEAN-5                         -1.5    -2.8   -2.0    -2.6   -2.2     1.3    0.5     0.1
Europe                            -0.4    -4.1   -3.2    -2.2   -2.2     0.5    1.0     0.8
Russia                              3.5    -3.5   -1.8    -0.6   -1.3     1.1    1.8     1.0
Latin America                   -1.4    -2.9   -3.1    -2.5   -2.7    -0.6  -0.3    -0.6
Brazil                              -2.1    -2.0   -3.0    -2.5   -2.6    -1.2  -1.3    -0.9
Mexico                            -1.8    -4.4   -4.1    -2.1   -2.7    -1.4   0.2    -0.6
G-20 Economies                -3.0    -5.2   -5.2    -4.9   -3.8     0.2  -0.3    -0.3
Advanced G-20 Economies  -3.4    -5.6   -6.0    -6.1   -4.5     0.4  -0.6    -0.3
Emerging G-20 Economies   -2.3    -4.6   -4.0    -3.1   -2.7    -0.1   0.0    -0.2
Memorandum Items:
Overall Balance
Advanced Economies2        -3.3   -7.8   -7.6    -7.1   -5.2      0.3  -0.3    -0.1
United States2                 -5.7  -10.2 -10.4   -10.7   -7.4      0.3  -1.1    -0.9
Projections
Difference from November 2010 Fiscal Monitor
Sources: IMF staff estimates and projections.
Note: All country averages are PPP-GDP weighted using 2009 weights. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies. The sample of emerging economies has been extended compared with the November 2010 Fiscal Monitor. (See “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.)
1 For 2010, based on authorities’ data as of March 31, 2011 (not yet reflected in the April 2011 WEO).
2 Excluding financial sector support recorded above the line.

Statistical Table


Statistical Table 1. General Government Balance (Percent of GDP)  
                       2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Advanced Economies
Australia             2.0   1.5  -0.5  -4.1  -4.6  -2.5  -0.6  0.0   0.2    0.5   0.7
Austria              -1.6  -0.6 -0.5   -3.5  -4.1 -3.1  -2.9 -2.6  -2.2  -2.2  -2.1
Belgium               0.2  -0.3 -1.3   -6.0  -4.6 -3.9  -4.0 -4.1  -4.1  -4.1  -4.1
Canada               1.6   1.6   0.1   -5.5  -5.5 -4.6  -2.8 -1.6  -0.7  -0.2   0.0
Czech Republic    -2.6 -0.7  -2.7   -5.8  -4.9 -3.7  -3.6 -3.5  -3.4  -3.5  -3.5
Denmark              4.9  4.6    3.2   -2.8  -4.9 -3.6  -2.6 -1.4  -0.5   0.5    1.2
Estonia               3.2   2.9  -2.3   -2.1    0.2 -1.0  -0.7 -0.1   0.9   1.5    1.8
Finland               3.9    5.2   4.2   -2.9  -2.8  -1.2 -1.1  -1.5 -1.4  -1.3  -1.3
France              -2.3  -2.7  -3.3   -7.5  -7.0  -5.8 -4.9  -4.0 -3.0  -2.2  -1.5
Germany           -1.6    0.3   0.1   -3.0  -3.3  -2.3  -1.5 -1.0  -0.4 -0.1    0.0
Greece              -6.1  -6.7 -9.5  -15.4  -9.6  -7.4  -6.2 -4.5  -2.5 -2.1  -2.1
Hong Kong SAR    4.1    7.7  0.1     1.6    4.8   4.6   6.3   6.7   7.0   7.0   7.0
Iceland               6.3    5.4 - 0.5  -9.0   -6.8 -4.6  -1.3   1.4   2.1   2.2   1.8
Ireland               2.9    0.1 -7.3  -14.4 -32.2-10.8  -8.9 -7.4 -4.8  -4.3  -3.8
Israel                -1.2  -0.6 -2.8    -5.6  -4.1  -3.2  -2.2  -1.7 -1.1  -1.0  -1.0
Italy                 -3.3  -1.5 -2.7    -5.3  -4.5  -4.3  -3.5  -3.3  -3.2 -3.1  -2.9
Japan                -4.0 -2.4  -4.2  -10.3  -9.5 -10.0  -8.4 -7.8  -7.4 -7.4  -7.4
Korea                 2.4   4.2   1.7     0.0    2.4    2.5   2.8   3.0   3.1   3.2   3.1
Netherlands         0.6   0.3   0.6   -5.4   -5.2   -3.8 -2.7  -2.1 -1.8  -1.3  -0.6
New Zealand        2.6   2.5   0.1   -3.3   -6.3   -6.4 -3.7  -2.1 -0.9  -0.1   0.7
Norway              18.5 17.7  19.3  10.4   10.9   13.0 12.7  12.2 11.7 11.4  11.2
Portugal             -4.1 -2.8  -2.9   -9.3   -7.3   -5.6  -5.5  -5.7 -5.8 -5.8  -5.9
Singapore            5.1 10.0   5.3   -0.8     5.3    3.3   3.6    3.7   3.9  3.9   4.1
Slovak Republic   -3.2 -1.8  -2.1   -7.9    -8.2  -5.2  -3.9  -2.9  -2.8 -2.4 -2.2
Slovenia            -0.8   0.3  -0.3   -5.5    -5.2  -4.8  -4.3  -3.5 -3.1  -2.9 -2.9
Spain                 2.0   1.9  -4.2  -11.1   -9.2   -6.2  -5.6 -5.0  -4.7 -4.6  -4.6
Sweden              2.4   3.7   2.4    -0.8   -0.2    0.1    0.4  0.9   1.2   1.7   2.0
Switzerland         1.1   1.8   2.0     0.8     0.2    0.3    0.6  0.6   0.9   0.9   0.9
United Kingdom   -2.6 -2.7  -4.9  -10.3  -10.4   -8.6  -6.9 -5.0 -3.4  -2.3 -1.3
United States     -2.0 -2.7  -6.5  -12.7  -10.6  -10.8 -7.5  -5.7 -5.2 -5.5  -6.0


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US:直前にやっと回避したGov. Shutdown [Social Policy]

US 政府機関のシャットダウンの危機にさらされていた2011年度予算協議が深夜期限ぎりぎりに決着して,シャットダウンは回避されたそうです.

その過程では結局政府与党側が an agreement to cut billions of dollars from the federal budget とありますから,詳細は分りませんが,相当の予算削減に追い込まれたようです.

President Barack Obama said there are "painful cuts" in the deal reached late Friday, which slashes some $38 billion dollars from the 2011 budget.  
the entire budget was being held up over a single issue - a Republican proposal to ban $300 million in federal spending for Planned Parenthood, a group that provides health care services including abortions. と争点の一部が明らかになっています.

こうなると日本が野放図に膨張させてきた財政赤字(国際増発)がいっそう目立つことになり,おそらくマイナス成長に転落するわが国のこれからの民青,経済復興にとって,かなり重い抑制材料になりそうなことが懸念されます.

 

US Congress Averts Government Shutdown Ahead of Midnight Deadline

President Barack Obama poses for photographers in the Blue Room at the White House in Washington after he spoke regarding the budget and the averted government shutdown after a deal was made between Republican and Democrat lawmakers, April 8, 2011
Photo: AP

President Barack Obama poses for photographers in the Blue Room at the White House in Washington after he spoke regarding the budget and the averted government shutdown after a deal was made between Republican and Democrat lawmakers, April 8, 2011

U.S. lawmakers have reached an agreement to cut billions of dollars from the federal budget and avoid a government shutdown minutes before a midnight deadline.

President Barack Obama said there are "painful cuts" in the deal reached late Friday, which slashes some $38 billion dollars from the 2011 budget.

The Senate has passed the temporary funding measure, which is being rushed to the House of Representatives for approval.  A vote on the full budget is expected later this week.

Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner said it was "a long fight," but said it was important to keep spending down to create a better environment for creating jobs.

Senate Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said the compromise was difficult but important for the country. He said if the American people have to make tough choices, so should lawmakers.

Without an agreement, about  800,000 of 1.9 million federal employees would be furloughed, and pay for combat troops would be suspended.

Earlier in the day, Reid said the entire budget was being held up over a single issue - a Republican proposal to ban $300 million in federal spending for Planned Parenthood, a group that provides health care services including abortions.

The agreement reached Friday, however, does not include the so-called riders on social issues.

In a months-long dispute, Republicans and Democrats have disagreed about how much and where to cut spending, and already are blaming each other for the budget impasse. Newly elected Tea Party members among the Republican majority that controls the House of Representatives have sought the most extensive spending cuts.

Reid accused Tea Party supporters of trying to enact an "extreme agenda" in pushing for limits on abortion rights and enforcement of environmental laws.  He said Democrats would willingly debate these issues in separate legislation, but insisted they did not belong in the budget plan.


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US: 連邦政府機関シャット・ダウンの危機 [Social Policy]

アメリカの捻れ国会は,アメリカの赤字拡大を何処まで認めるかを巡って激しく対立しており,予算執行困難から政府機関がシャットダウンする危機に直面しており,White House は連邦各機関にシャットダウンに備えるよう指示をしたと伝えられています.

WASHINGTON—The White House has ordered top officials at multiple federal agencies to ensure contingency plans are ready for the partial federal shutdown that could take place if lawmakers don't reach a deal on spending levels by midnight Friday.

"given the realities of the calendar, good management requires that we continue contingency planning for an orderly shutdown." と差し迫ったシャットダウンの可能性を伝えています.Current spending authority for the federal government expires Friday, April 8, at midnight. なのです.

"If we force the government to live week by week now, more than six months into the fiscal year, you will risk undermining the recovery now underway," Mr. Geithner told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said a shutdown would have a "very material" impact on the Treasury Department's ability to function, and said it would damage the country's economic recovery. と財務大臣が議会でダメ押しの証言をしているのですが,なかなか合意が得られないようです.

 

 

 

White House Orders Agencies to Prepare for Shutdown

  • WASHINGTON—The White House has ordered top officials at multiple federal agencies to ensure contingency plans are ready for the partial federal shutdown that could take place if lawmakers don't reach a deal on spending levels by midnight Friday.

Jeff Zients, the White House's chief performance officer, sent an email to deputy secretaries and chiefs of staff throughout the government on Monday asking them "to communicate with senior managers throughout your organizations as appropriate to ensure you have their feedback and input on plans to date."

The email said that White House and congressional leaders were working to avoid a shutdown. But it said "given the realities of the calendar, good management requires that we continue contingency planning for an orderly shutdown." Mr. Zients promised another update for government leaders by Tuesday. Current spending authority for the federal government expires Friday, April 8, at midnight.

As the click ticks toward this Friday's possible U.S. government shutdown, WSJ's Jerry Seib looks at proposals being weighed by Republicans and Democrats, along with efforts to raise the country's debt ceiling.

 

Democrats and Republicans are still at odds over how much spending should be cut to fund the government for the next six months. Congressional leaders met at the White House Tuesday to discuss the matter. The White House, Democrats and Republicans have said they want to avoid a shutdown, but they continue to fight over where spending should be cut.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday referenced the letter from Mr. Zients in response to a question about what Treasury was doing to prepare for a shutdown.

He said a shutdown would have a "very material" impact on the Treasury Department's ability to function, and said it would damage the country's economic recovery.

"If we force the government to live week by week now, more than six months into the fiscal year, you will risk undermining the recovery now underway," Mr. Geithner told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee.

Kenneth Baer, a spokesman for the Office of Management and Budget, said "as the week progresses, we will continue to take necessary steps to prepare for the possibility that Congress is unable to come to agreement and a lapse in government funding ensues."


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EU の緊縮財政への方向:主要国の事例② [Social Policy]

EU 諸国は市場を一体化し,通貨を統合する方向を決めた Maastricht条約で,各国の財政赤字はGDPの3%を超えてはならないこと,あるいは,国の借金,国債残高はGDP の60%を超えないこと,を条件付けています.

2009年時点の各国の状況を一覧にした表は下記の通りです.

因みに日本の国債残高は繰り返しになりますが,GDP の200%に迫っているのです.それでも,                               日本経済が直ちに売り叩かれないのは,国債の保有が圧倒的に(約90%が)国内だということがあり,また,Japan as No.1 まで高度成長を遂げて以来の日本保有外国資産がかなり膨大だということがあります.しかし,世界標準に従って財政健全化を図ることが必要条件であることに変わりはありません.ひょっとしたきっかけで,いつ売り叩かれるかという心配は排除して置くに越したことはないからです.

本文から,前回のように,主要国の赤字削減策を拾いますと,                      

Denmark- Government will cut spending by $4 billion over the next three years to lower budget deficit to below three percent of GDP. Spending cuts include unemployment benefits lowered to two years (from four); the public sector will lose 20,000 jobs; child benefits are to be reduced by five percent, ministerial salaries cut by five percent and university expenses will be cut.      

France- The government’s budget is aimed at lowering the deficit to six percent of GDP in 2011, three percent in 2013 and to two percent in 2014. Parliament voted to raise the retirement age to 62 (from 60); the pay-as-you-go pension system is being raised by half a year to 41.5 years of required work for full pension; a three-year freeze on public spending is under consideration; pension contributions from employees’ pay will rise to 10.55 percent from 7.85 percent; income taxes for the highest income group will rise by one percent and an one-off corporate tax break will be eliminated. Under these plans, a total of €45 billion a year will be cut from government spending over the next three years.

Germany- The budget, before parliament by end of November, will cut the budget deficit by €80 billion, three percent of GDP by 2014. The government will cut welfare spending by €30 billion over a four year period; reduce public sector payrolls by up to 15,000 by 2014 and raise new taxes on nuclear power plant operators and air travel. Defense cuts include reducing armed services by 40,000 troops in an effort to cut military spending by €9.3 billion.

Netherlands- The Netherlands’ austerity plan aims to cut the budget by €18 billion by 2015. Likely measures will include higher retirement age, reduction in military spending, tax increases and cuts in government programs.

Sweden- In the 1990’s Sweden implemented a fiscal rules-based system based on budgetary spending ceilings. Strong public finances and a sustainable debt level are likely to remain. No exceptional austerity measures are foreseen given the recent pick-up in economic activity and continued improvement in the fiscal balance.
Swedenは,第2次世界大戦中,北海沿岸の防衛線を固めたノルウエーを背後から侵略しようとしたナチスドイツに,武装中立国でありながら自国領の安全通過を認めるという中立違反の大きな汚点を残し,一時北欧の孤児になりましたが,お蔭で戦災を免れ,戦後著しい経済成長を遂げ,1人あたりGDPが1970年代にアメリカの首位に近づいて3位という全盛期に達しました.しかし,1990年代に入って,日本とほぼ同時に,バブル経済の崩壊を招き,長期政権だった社会民主党が政権を失って,中道右派の連立政権の下,Welfare cut を含む厳しい財政再建策が取られた成果が,ようやく2010年に顕在化し,長い低迷から,近年の1人あたりGDPランキングは17~19位を前後していますが,今回の財政改革の波からは免れています.なお,その過程でSwedenでいわれていたUniversalism は,ほぼそれまでの意味を失ったといえます.

それと対称的なのがイギリス,UK で,1993年に保守党政権に取って代わった労働党政権がかなりの放漫財政を続けた結果,昨年政権交代した中道右派連立政権が,かなり厳しい財政運営を迫られており,1990年代のSwedenの手法が参照されています.
United Kingdom-The British government unveiled the country’s steepest public spending cuts in more than 60 years: €83 billion in spending cuts by 2015, bringing the 11 percent of GDP budget deficit down to one percent over the next five years. The new budget includes reducing costs in government departments by an average of 19 percent; a 24 percent cut to the Department of Culture (includes the BBC); raising the retirement age from 65 to 66 by 2020; eliminating 490,000 public sector jobs over the next four years, university cuts; lowering long-term unemployment benefits from 95% to 70% and eliminating benefits to those who do not seek jobs; eliminating child benefits to those earning more than €70,000 as well as other cuts to the welfare system. Defense spending will decrease by eight percent and police spending will decrease by four percent. The VAT tax will rise from 17.5 to 20 percent in January.

以上が,主要国の財政健全化努力の概要です.あとは以下の本文をご自由にご参照下さい.

なお.次のEU財政危機の差し迫った危険水域にあるのは,内閣が総辞職し選挙戦に入ったPortugal です.

 

                                  

According to the European Union’s Maastricht criteria, EU member states may not have a budget deficit that exceeds three percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or a national debt that exceeds of sixty percent of the GDP.  Listed below are the EU states’ 2009 government budget deficits as percentages of GDP, their official predicted future government budget deficit as a percent of GDP.  Also listed is the national debt as a percentage of GDP for 2009.

 

 

 

Government Budget Deficit as Percentage of GDP for 2009

Predicted Government Budget Deficit as Percentage of GDP

National Debt as Percentage of GDP for 2009

Austria

3.5%

2011- 3%

66.5%

Belgium

6%

 

96.7%

Bulgaria

4.7%

2011- 2.5%

14.8%

Cyprus

6%

 

56.2%

Czech Republic

5.8%

2011- 4.6%

2012- 3.5%

2013- 2.9%

35.3%

Denmark

2.7%

 

41.6%

Estonia

1.7%

 

7.2%

Finland

2.5%

 

44.0%

France

7.5%

2011- 6%

2013- 3%

2014- 2%

77.6%

Germany

3%

 

73.2%

Greece

13.6

2010- 7.8%

2011- 7%

115.1%

Hungary

4.4%

2011- 3.8%

78.3%

Ireland

14.4%

2014- 3%

2015- 2.9%

64.0%

Italy

5.3%

2012- 2.7%

115.8%

Latvia

10.2%

2011- 6%

36.1%

Lithuania

9.2%

 

29.3%

Luxemburg

0.7%

 

14.5%

Malta

3.8%

 

69.1%

Netherlands

5.4%

 

60.9%

Poland

7.2%

 

51.0%

Portugal

9.3%

2010- 7.3%

2011- 4.6%

76.8%

Romania

8.6%

 

23.7%

Slovakia

7.9%

2011- 4.9%

2013- 3%

35.7%

Slovenia

5.8%

 

35.9%

Spain

11.1%

2011- 6%

53.2%

Sweden

0.9%

 

43.2%

United Kingdom

11.4%

2015- 1%

68.1%

 

Austria- The Austrian government announced the country would hit its target three percent of GDP for its budget deficit in 2011 (a year earlier than anticipated). Austria’s austerity plan includes an expected income of €1.17 billion ($1.63 billion) from tax increases--a banking tax that will bring in €500 million in 2011, extra taxes on tobacco, petrol, and flight tickets that will bring in approximately €667 million in 2011. The remainder of the government’s plan includes an expected €1.6 billion in spending cuts. Both the tax increase and spending cuts will allow for a €400 million new investment project aimed at education, research and energy efficient projects.

Belgium- Stalemate in domestic politics after deadlocked elections has paralyzed action on austerity measures. When a new government is formed, it will find proposals on the table for new taxes: on pensions, on CO2 emissions, a “crisis tax” on banks – plus a proposal to bar increases in health-care spending.

Bulgaria- Austerity measures aimed at lowering its budget deficit to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2009 to 2.5 percent for 2011. The plan includes reducing spending by $584 million in 2011 by cutting funds to almost all government ministries; a reducing public sector jobs by 10 percent and a freezing wages for up to three years.

Cyprus- Deficit reduction steps include increasing fuel taxes and corporate taxes by one percent.  Freezes are being put on public-sector recruitment and parts of the telecommunications budget. A rise in VAT rates is under discussion.

Czech Republic- The national budget for 2011 aims to reduce the budget deficit to 4.6 percent of the GDP, 3.5 percent in 2012 and to 2.9 percent in 2013. State spending will be cut by 10 percent mostly through welfare and wage cuts (salary cuts of up to 43 percent). Taxes will be applied to pensions of workers who earn three times the national average wage. More reforms to pension and healthcare are expected to be announced in December.

Denmark- Government will cut spending by $4 billion over the next three years to lower budget deficit to below three percent of GDP. Spending cuts include unemployment benefits lowered to two years (from four); the public sector will lose 20,000 jobs; child benefits are to be reduced by five percent, ministerial salaries cut by five percent and university expenses will be cut.

Estonia- With comparatively low levels of debt (7.2 percent of GDP) and only a 1.7 percent budget deficit, savings of €432 million are being sought and an increase in VAT rates is under consideration.

Finland- An energy tax will generate €750 million in a deficit reduction move; new excise taxes on sweets and soft drinks will raise an extra €100 million per year; VAT rates are being raised one percent (to 23 percent), but the restaurant VAT rate will be reduced to 13 percent.

France- The government’s budget is aimed at lowering the deficit to six percent of GDP in 2011, three percent in 2013 and to two percent in 2014. Parliament voted to raise the retirement age to 62 (from 60); the pay-as-you-go pension system is being raised by half a year to 41.5 years of required work for full pension; a three-year freeze on public spending is under consideration; pension contributions from employees’ pay will rise to 10.55 percent from 7.85 percent; income taxes for the highest income group will rise by one percent and an one-off corporate tax break will be eliminated. Under these plans, a total of €45 billion a year will be cut from government spending over the next three years.

Germany- The budget, before parliament by end of November, will cut the budget deficit by €80 billion, three percent of GDP by 2014. The government will cut welfare spending by €30 billion over a four year period; reduce public sector payrolls by up to 15,000 by 2014 and raise new taxes on nuclear power plant operators and air travel. Defense cuts include reducing armed services by 40,000 troops in an effort to cut military spending by €9.3 billion.

Greece- The Greek budget aims for a deficit of seven percent of GDP in 2011, down from a projected 7.8 percent in 2010. Proposed plans will cut the budget by €30 billion over the next three years. Public sector wages were cut by up to 25 percent; lower-wage workers’ bonuses will have a cap and higher- paid workers’ bonuses will be eliminated and many temporary workers’ contracts will not be renewed. The Greek government is expected to crack down on tax evasion and on corruption within the tax service. Tax revenue will include a VAT increase of four percent that is expected to bring in €1 billion, a 10 percent increase on fuel, alcohol and tobacco taxes and new property and gambling taxes. The average retirement age is set to rise from 61.4 to 63.5 along with other expected pension cuts.

Hungary- Hungary’s budget aims for a deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP for 2011.  The government’s plans include a 200 billion forint (€735 million) (about 0.7 percent of GDP) tax levy on the financial sector for both 2010 and 2011; a 15 percent cut in public sector expenditure (saving €171 million); lower wage ceilings for public sector employees (and the elimination of the 13th month payment); a 15 percent cut in budget subsidies for political parties in 2010 and reductions of seats in parliament and local assemblies are possibilities.  Additionally, measures implemented by the previous government in 2009, include a gradual three-year increase in the retirement age to 65; a two-year freeze in public sector pensions; a temporary increase to 25 percent in VAT rates; cuts in the “jubilee” bonuses for the prime minister, ministers and state secretaries and a 10 percent cut in sick pay and suspension of a housing subsidy.

Ireland- Ireland announced it will need to make twice the budget reductions originally announced in order bring the deficit to three percent of GDP by 2014. The announcement included that the government will cut the budget deficit by €6 billion in 2011. Previous austerity measures included a five percent cut in public sector wages; capital gains and capital acquisitions taxes increase by 25 percent; social welfare cut by €760 million and child benefits reduction by €16 per month; a cigarette tax increase; investment projects reduction by €960 million; a carbon tax of €15 per ton of CO2 and a new water tax. The increased expenditure cuts and tax increases will be announced December 7th.

Italy- Italy’s budget aims to bring down the deficit from 5.3 percent of GDP to 2.7 percent by 2012. Spending cuts include a delay in retirement age of up to six months; a state salary freeze and pay cuts for high public sector earners. Funding to city and regional authorities is expected to be cut by more than €13 billion. All government ministries will be required to make a 10 percent spending cut in 2011.

Latvia- Latvia’s budget plans for a six percent deficit of GDP by stimulating economic growth and tax increases. The government will also make spending cuts totaling 800 million lats ($1.5 billion) over 2011-2012. Real estate taxes are expected to rise and a VAT increase on products and services to 18 percent from 10 percent. Public sector wages will be cut by 25 percent.

Lithuania- Lithuania’s austerity measures include a two year freeze in public sector salaries; public spending will decrease by 30 percent; public-sector pensions will be cut by 11 percent; alcohol and pharmaceuticals will be taxed at higher rates; corporate taxes will rise by five percent and parental-leave benefits will decrease. Also, pension reforms are expected to be announced next year.

Luxembourg- Government spending will be reduced by €370 million in 2011 and €407 million in 2012, including cuts in transportation and education spending.

Malta- In 2009, Malta ran a deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP so officials do not believe that austerity measures are necessary: instead, they are concentrating on increasing the creation of jobs.

Netherlands- The Netherlands’ austerity plan aims to cut the budget by €18 billion by 2015. Likely measures will include higher retirement age, reduction in military spending, tax increases and cuts in government programs.

Poland- The government plans to cut €14.4 billion over the next two years. The budget includes a one percent VAT increase, tightening pension requirements (but not raising the retirement age) and proposed military cuts.

Portugal- Portugal’s budget will lower 2009’s deficit of 9.3 percent of GDP to 4.6 percent in 2011. Spending reductions include a five percent cut to top earners in the public sector; cuts to social programs; 17 enterprises will be privatized; VAT rates will rise and income and corporate taxes will rise by two to five percent. Military spending will be cut by 40 percent by 2013.

Romania-  Romania’s government will cut state wages by 25 percent and pensions will be cut by 15 percent; up to 70,000 public sector jobs could be lost in 2010 and the government will raise VAT rates to 24 percent (up five percent) to raise up to €1.2 billion.

Slovakia- Slovakia’s budget deficit will fall from of 7.8 percent of GDP to 4.9 percent in 2011 and to three percent in 2013.The government plans a 10 percent cut in minister and lawmaker salaries; a one percent VAT increase and higher taxes on alcohol and cigarettes.

Slovenia- Parliament has proposed reductions in public sector bonuses.  Inflation adjustments for wages will not be implemented.

Spain- Spain’s budget will lower 2009’s deficit of 11.2 of GDP to six percent in 2011. Deficit reductions include an income tax increase for those earning more than €175,000; wages cut by five percent for civil servants; 13,000 jobs will be eliminated; public investment plans will be cut by more than €6 billion; automatic inflation-adjustments for pensions will be suspended; a €2,747 baby bonus subsidy will be cut and regional funding will be cut by €1.2 billion.

Sweden- In the 1990’s Sweden implemented a fiscal rules-based system based on budgetary spending ceilings. Strong public finances and a sustainable debt level are likely to remain. No exceptional austerity measures are foreseen given the recent pick-up in economic activity and continued improvement in the fiscal balance.

United Kingdom-The British government unveiled the country’s steepest public spending cuts in more than 60 years: €83 billion in spending cuts by 2015, bringing the 11 percent of GDP budget deficit down to one percent over the next five years. The new budget includes reducing costs in government departments by an average of 19 percent; a 24 percent cut to the Department of Culture (includes the BBC); raising the retirement age from 65 to 66 by 2020; eliminating 490,000 public sector jobs over the next four years, university cuts; lowering long-term unemployment benefits from 95% to 70% and eliminating benefits to those who do not seek jobs; eliminating child benefits to those earning more than €70,000 as well as other cuts to the welfare system. Defense spending will decrease by eight percent and police spending will decrease by four percent. The VAT tax will rise from 17.5 to 20 percent in January.


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